China population decline: China Anticipates Increase in Births as Population Decline Accelerates

China population decline:Continued Economic Sluggishness Exacerbates Demographic Issues for Beijing

The upcoming Year of the Dragon, traditionally associated with a rise in births in China and East Asia, may not alleviate demographic challenges for Beijing this time. Despite the historical trend, factors such as a bleak economic outlook, an aging population, and the lingering impact of the coronavirus pandemic have contributed to China experiencing its second consecutive annual population decline in 2023.

Official data released on Wednesday revealed that deaths in China surpassed births by 2 million last year. With 11 million deaths recorded against 9 million births (down from 9.6 million in 2022), the nation's population now stands at 1.4 billion. Notably, the population decline has more than doubled compared to the previous year, according to Wang Feng, a Chinese demographics expert at the University of California, Irvine. In 2022, China witnessed its first population decline in six decades, with a decrease of 850,000.

Adding to the concerns, the national death rate is on the rise, reaching 7.87 per 1,000 people in 2023— the highest level since the early 1970s. While the sudden easing of strict anti-pandemic measures in late 2022 is believed to have contributed to the increased death toll, comprehensive Covid-19 fatality data has not been officially published by authorities.

China's population decline, driven by a decreasing birth rate and an aging demographic, poses a significant challenge as Beijing grapples with a prolonged property downturn, sluggish exports, and waning investor confidence. Last year, India officially surpassed China as the world's most populous nation.

Economists caution that the current year is crucial for China to reignite the growth factors that fueled its remarkable four-decade expansion and avoid the looming threat of a debt-deflation spiral.

China's Birth Rate Drops Despite the Abolition of the One-Child Policy

Traditionally, a dragon lunar new year holiday might have offered some hope for relief, with the belief that "dragon babies" born during this period bring good luck, leading to a spike in births every 12 years. While this phenomenon has been notable in places like Taiwan and Singapore, Wang Feng, an expert on Chinese demographics, notes that this superstition is less prevalent among China's contemporary child-bearing population. The effects of the long-standing one-child policy have already contributed to a shrinking birth rate well below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.

Wang expresses skepticism about a noticeable rebound in births this year, citing the pessimistic economic outlook and a general sense of pessimism among young people in China.

The Year of the Dragon Typically Sees a Slight Increase in Births

This poses a significant challenge for Beijing's population planners, who are eager to reverse the rapidly declining birth rate as the country grapples with the potential of a prolonged economic slowdown and enduring labor shortages.

Experts highlight a mutually reinforcing cycle between economic challenges and a low birth rate. China's consumer price index remained in deflationary territory for the third consecutive month in December, indicating consumer caution about the prospects of an economic recovery.

"Economic pessimism is a strong counterforce for improving the birth rate this year," commented Wang Feng, underlining the lifelong responsibility associated with having a child.

However, experts caution that policymakers have limited tools to encourage higher birth rates, despite loosening the one-child policy in 2016. The number of births has continued to decline, and incentive schemes for new parents have largely failed to boost the birth rate.

"Chinese women's desire to have children is low. There is no sign that this will change, even as concerns about the demographic crisis increase and even if policymakers try to incentivize increased births through subsidies," noted Lü Pin, a Chinese feminist writer based in New York.

China's State Council, the cabinet, has signaled a shift in approach this week by advocating for investment in a "silver economy" to address the needs of a growing elderly population. This includes focusing on pensions, healthcare, and leisure services for the elderly.

Dora Gao, a 30-year-old finance professional in Shanghai, expressed her lack of confidence in her financial stability to raise a child. She cited insufficient resources for a child's education, intense competition, and the associated high costs as deterrents. Gao also highlighted the "professional penalty" on mothers in China, where working mothers often face challenges such as having work taken away and given to colleagues, making them less likely to be promoted. These factors contribute to the reluctance of individuals like Gao to consider having children.