Crypto's 2023 Witnessed Both Fraud and Scandal, Yet Potentially Emerged as Its Pinnacle Year.
Crypto's 14th year marked by scandal, bankruptcy, fraud, and regulatory disputes may paradoxically stand as the industry's most successful year to date.
In the drama of "Crypto 2023," key characters such as Sam Bankman-Fried, Changpeng Zhao, Alex Mashinsky, and, to a lesser extent, Heather "Razzlekhan" Morgan and Ilya Lichtenstein (dubbed 'Bitcoin Bonnie and Clyde'), took center stage, becoming synonymous with fraud.
Despite the negative publicity, the fledgling industry achieved significant milestones. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, soared by 160% throughout the year. Two prominent legal battles concluded in favor of the industry. Furthermore, the long-awaited approval for a mainstream investment product is anticipated in January, potentially ushering in a wave of new investors.
Similar to the broader financial landscape, digital assets experienced an uplift attributed to an improving macroeconomic outlook characterized by easing inflation, a burgeoning economy, and the much-anticipated conclusion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
"It marked a year of remarkable resilience for the crypto space," noted Kyla Curley, a crypto expert and partner at the global advisory firm StoneTurn.
A significant element contributing to this resilience is the assertive stance taken by US authorities, notably the Department of Justice, in flexing their enforcement capabilities within the crypto sphere, even amid the absence of explicit regulations.
Fraud is fraud," asserts Curley, emphasizing, "Regardless of the technology or the industry, you cannot stop human nature. When it comes down to it, people will find a way to exploit the rules.
The Argument for Positivity Amidst Challenges
No individual cast a more substantial shadow over the crypto landscape in 2023 than Bankman-Fried. Once lauded as a visionary entrepreneur, he was convicted in November of masterminding a yearslong, multibillion-dollar fraud through his FTX trading platform.
The trial of SBF, widely recognized as Bankman-Fried, became the focal point for both crypto's staunchest supporters and its harshest critics. For those inclined to view crypto skeptically, the trial exposed the questionable practices underlying FTX, which, with its promise as a user-friendly entry into the digital asset realm, attracted millions of mainstream investors. The meteoric rise and subsequent fall of SBF now serve as a prominent example for crypto detractors.
Conversely, those in the crypto community who elevated SBF to a billionaire pseudo-savior also celebrated his conviction, portraying the verdict as a long-awaited cleansing of a problematic figure.
In a significant legal development, a few weeks following the verdict, US authorities achieved another successful enforcement action. Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, the founder of the leading crypto trading platform, Binance, entered a guilty plea for money-laundering charges as part of a substantial $4 billion settlement.
2023 proved unfavorable for grifters but favorable for builders," notes Faryar Shirzad, Chief Policy Officer for Coinbase. "Entering 2024, with many grifters out, is positive."
In the fortnight post CZ's guilty plea, Bitcoin soared 23% to $44,000, its highest in 18 months, as investors anticipated positive developments.
Bitcoin enthusiasts stand firm in their optimism.
The pivotal moment for the crypto sphere in 2024 might unfold as early as next month, with expectations of US regulators approving applications for the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the American market.
In simple terms, a spot Bitcoin ETF enables investors to monitor the price of Bitcoin without directly owning the digital currency. This appeals to mainstream investors for several reasons. Firstly, it provides a relatively secure avenue for everyday investors who approach crypto cautiously to participate in the often volatile market.
Additionally, ETFs are traded on traditional stock exchanges, allowing investors to access them through their familiar brokerage platforms rather than navigating a new account in the crypto space. The added prospect of regulatory oversight introduces an extra layer of protection and transparency.
The implication: A substantial influx of new funds into Bitcoin may be imminent.
Further fueling this optimistic outlook is the Bitcoin halving, also known as "the halvening.
While it typically follows a buy-the-hype-sell-the-news pattern, the halving tends to propel Bitcoin upward. In essence, Bitcoin is a finite asset, and every four years, the algorithm cuts in half the number of new tokens entering circulation (hence the name).
The 'halving' stands as the ultimate geek event for Bitcoin enthusiasts in 2024," stated Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo. "If history repeats itself, we may not witness Bitcoin's peak until 2025, with 2024 serving as a prelude to the main event.
Trenchev anticipates a "twin-turbo boost" from the spot ETF approval and the halving, expected in the spring, propelling Bitcoin to $100,000 — a 45% surge over its all-time high of $69,000 reached in November 2021.
"The road to $100,000 will be lined with unexpected potholes and double-digit declines as Bitcoin," warns Trenchev, borrowing a phrase from Warren Buffett, "transfers money from the impatient to the patient.
For an even more bullish prediction, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and a Bitcoin advocate, foresees "Bitcoin ending the year at $140,000," as shared with the digital news outlet Semafor.
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