Options for Israel to retaliate against Iran: Understanding the high-risk strategies
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises a robust reaction to tensions with Iran, despite US warnings against escalating the conflict further in the region.
Israel's war cabinet is working tirelessly to determine how to respond to Iran's recent drone and missile attack. The strike, involving nearly 300 missiles and drones, marked the first direct assault on Israel from Iranian territory, exposing a longstanding covert conflict.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged a forceful reaction, despite warnings from the US and several allies to avoid escalating tensions regionally. Ministers within Netanyahu's government argue that failure to retaliate would show weakness and invite further aggression from Iran.
However, Israel has not disclosed specifics about its planned response yet.
Here are potential options Israel might be weighing:
Bombing Iran's Nuclear Sites
Israel might counter the Iranian attack with its own airstrikes, given that Iran's air defenses are perceived as weaker compared to the robust system deployed by Israel and its allies. If Israel chooses this option, it could aim at important sites like Revolutionary Guards' bases or nuclear research facilities. However, this would be a risky and aggressive move, likely provoking further retaliation from Iran and potentially leading to a broader regional conflict, which the US, Europe, and Arab states are eager to prevent.
Israel has a track record of taking preemptive military measures against perceived threats, such as bombing an Iraqi reactor in 1981 and a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007. Israel perceives Iran's nuclear program as a fundamental threat to its existence. While Tehran claims its nuclear facilities serve peaceful purposes, Israel suspects they are meant for developing weapons. Many of Iran's nuclear sites are deeply buried underground, making them difficult targets for potential strikes. Consequently, some argue that Israel would require assistance from the US to hit these facilities. However, US President Joe Biden has stated that he won't deploy forces to support Israel in any retaliation against Iran.
Another potential target could be Iran's Bonab Atomic Research Center, located closest to Israel, about 500 kilometers south of Azerbaijan, an Israeli ally. While it's not among Iran's most critical nuclear facilities, striking it would demonstrate Israel's military capabilities effectively.
Attacking Military Facilities
Israel might consider targeting Iranian military installations or vital infrastructure using either airstrikes or cyber operations. This approach aims to send a message of deterrence by hitting Iranian territory while minimizing harm to civilians, as explained by Sima Shine, former head of the Mossad intelligence agency's research division.
Although a missile or drone attack on Iran would be significant for Israel, it wouldn't necessarily be unprecedented. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed that Israeli forces destroyed a drone base in Iran in 2022 under his orders.
An Israeli Air Force officer, speaking at a press briefing, affirmed the readiness of the air force to defend Israel and stressed the importance of responding and striking back when necessary. The officer emphasized that decisions on how, when, and whether to act ultimately rest with the government and the cabinet.
Cyber Strike
Israel has long been accused of conducting cyberattacks on various civilian and military targets in Iran, alongside alleged assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and other covert operations. However, Israel has never officially acknowledged these actions.
It's widely believed that Israel has carried out cyber assaults on a range of infrastructure in Iran, including petrol stations, industrial plants, and nuclear facilities. Another cyberattack is seen as a probable option for retaliation.
Such attacks could disrupt critical sectors like energy production or air travel services. Former intelligence officials suggest that Israel would likely avoid targeting infrastructure like hospitals to minimize harm to the general population, similar to their approach with direct airstrikes.
Striking Middle Eastern Allies of Iran
Israel could opt to target proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen instead of launching a direct strike within Iran. There are also groups in Iraq and Syria supported by Iran to carry out attacks on behalf of Tehran.
Israel has been engaged in ongoing skirmishes with Hezbollah since the conflict with Hamas in Gaza began in October. Additionally, Israel has encountered missile and drone attacks from the Houthis, who have also targeted ships connected to Israel in the Red Sea. Despite these incidents, the conflict has not escalated into a full-scale war.
Iran's recent missile attack was allegedly triggered by an Israeli strike on their embassy in Syria, resulting in the deaths of two Iranian generals.
Concentrating on Gaza
Israel is currently engaged in a military conflict with Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, in the Gaza Strip. This conflict has been ongoing for around six months now. The Israeli government claims that a significant number of Hamas fighters, estimated to be around 8,000, are positioned in the city of Rafah in Gaza.
Defeating Hamas, which receives support and funding from Iran, would represent a strategic victory for Israel against its rival, Iran. Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of military intelligence research, has stated that "this entire war, from day one, is a war against Iran." He believes that Israel needs to fully complete its mission in Gaza in order to inflict substantial damage on the "Iranian axis" - the network of Iran's regional allies and proxies.
The conflict in Gaza is thus seen by some Israeli officials as part of a broader geopolitical struggle between Israel and Iran, which has been supporting Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups. Resolving the conflict with Hamas is viewed as crucial for weakening Iran's regional influence and dealing a blow to its network of regional alliances and proxies.
Undercover Operations
Israel is suspected of having conducted numerous covert missions within Iran, including the targeted killings of several key nuclear scientists.
These operations may have been executed both inside Iran and abroad.
Diplomatic Initiatives
While weighing military options, Israel has intensified diplomatic campaigns aimed at isolating Iran, including the expansion of sanctions. The United States announced on Tuesday its intention to impose fresh sanctions on Iran's missile and drone initiatives, and it anticipates similar actions from its allies and partners.
Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz has urged European nations to follow the lead of the United States in designating Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization.
Opmerkingen